Predictions

• August 4th, 2026: US real GDP growth from 2026-2031 will not average 4% annually.

  That is, there may be an AI construction boom, there may be some productivity growth from AI, but it will not be a radical change. AI will continue to be impressive, but actual economically impactful deployment will be gradual and not drive such shocking increases in the medium-term.

  Note: I originally made this prediction on Discord, where my prediction was a point estimate of 2.1% growth. I think that point estimate is reasonable, but it has huge error bars. I put at least a 1% chance on a major recession happening which could lead to 0% growth over that period. On the other side, 3% growth would be a mild surprise, but I wouldn't consider it shocking. So the one sided "no 4% growth prediction" is easier to make precise and testable.

  From the perspective of mainstream economics, this is a very boring prediction, but I made it in response to a online poll showing that SF tech folks are predicting 4.7% annual growth over the next five years. Manifold markets have a 10% probability world GDP doubles in the next 10 years (not equivalent, but it suggests much more rapid growth than the status quo, which is the 2.0-2.5% range). So perhaps this prediction is shooting fish in a barrel, but they are real fish, not straw fish.